Shooting outside San Antonio kills 26 — TRUMP prods Japanese car companies to manufacture in U.S. — VOTERS favor Dems by historic margin in 2018 House races — RAND’s injuries far worse than first thought

WEEK AHEAD — PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP is in Asia. But today begins Republicans’ frantic public sprint to rewrite the tax code this year. House Republicans are marking up their bill beginning at noon today and they plan to wrap up by Thursday. Look for more fissures in support as lobbyists and industries dig deeper into the bills and try to maximize their leverage to keep specific provisions from getting the ax. Senate Republicans are also releasing their bill. (Aaron Lorenzo with more on the Senate bill

— DRINK SOME COFFEE: House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady told us last week that they want to mark up the bill “during the normal working hours” but acknowledged it will creep into the night. Good follows for this week: @sahilkapur, @AaronELorenzo, @richardrubindc, @Brian_Faler, @colinwilhelm, @arappeport, @kristinapet. Missing someone? Shoot us a note.

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— THE HOUSE has eight legislative days to get tax reform through the chamber. They say they want to get it passed before the Thanksgiving break.

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Good Monday morning. THE LATEST IN TEXAS — “Worst mass shooting in Texas History claims 26 at a church near San Antonio,” by the San Antonio Express-News’ Kelsey Bradshaw, Caleb Downs, Guillermo Contreras and Fares Sabawi: “Authorities said [Devin] Kelley, dressed in tactical gear, began the shooting spree outside the church. He then walked inside and continued shooting, before fleeing in a vehicle.

“Earl Seesen Good, 68, lives about eight miles south of Sutherland Springs, near Stockdale. Several of his friends are members of First Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs, so he spent his night traveling to the hospital and community building to pray for the victims and their families. One of his good friends, whom he requested not be named, lost eight relatives Sunday morning. The victims span generations, from children to grand children to great grand children.”

— KELLEY was using an AR-15. This is the fifth-deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.

— TRUMP’S REACTION — @realDonaldTrump at 3:06 p.m.: “May God be w/ the people of Sutherland Springs, Texas. The FBI & law enforcement are on the scene. I am monitoring the situation from Japan.” at 11:48 p.m.: “…Americans do what we do best: we pull together. We join hands. We lock arms and through the tears and the sadness, we stand strong…”

WHAT PAUL RYAN IS READING — “Post-ABC poll: Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years,” by WaPo’s Sean Sullivan and Emily Guskin: “Voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives over Republicans by the widest margin in over a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — a fresh sign of trouble for the GOP majority one year before the midterm elections. But Democrats’ effort to convert widespread disapproval of President Trump into victories in 2018 could be undercut by lower turnout, with Republicans expressing just as much motivation to vote in next year’s elections.”

CATCHING YOU UP ON TRUMP IN ASIA … TRUMP to business leaders: “[O]ne thing I can say — that we make the greatest military equipment in the world. There’s nothing close. And the Prime Minister is ordering a lot of military equipment, as he should be — as he should be with what’s happening with one of your neighbors. So that is happening. … And, just, we make incredible equipment, whether it’s the planes, the missiles — anything you can think about. There’s nobody even close. So we’re going to be doing a lot of business with many countries on defense. …

“We will have more trade than anybody ever thought of under TPP, that I can tell you. TPP was not the right idea. Probably some of you in this room disagree, but ultimately I’ll be proven to be right. We will have much bigger trade with the way we’re doing it right now, and it will be a much less complex situation.”

ANDREW RESTUCCIA in Tokyo: “Trump to Japan: Make more cars in the U.S.”: “President Donald Trump on Monday took a shot at Japan over trade and called on the country to manufacture more cars in the United States, unleashing a direct criticism of the host country on the first leg of his 12-day tour of Asia. ‘Try building your cars in the United States instead of shipping them over,’ Trump implored during a briefing with business executives before asking, ‘That’s not rude?’

“Trump’s comments echoed his previous jabs, but they were notable because he lobbed them publicly during his visit here. And they’re an indication that he will not let his close relationship with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe quiet his long-standing concerns about trade and manufacturing. Trump and his aides have repeatedly trumpeted the president’s friendship with Abe, which began in February when the Japanese leader visited Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s private club in Florida.”

— WSJ: “Goldman, China’s Sovereign-Wealth Fund Plan up to $5 Billion in U.S. Investments: China Investment Corp. teaming up with top Wall Street bank on multibillion-dollar investment fund,” by Chao Deng and Lingling Wei in Beijing and Julie Steinberg in Hong Kong: “Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and China Investment Corp. are partnering on a multibillion-dollar fund to help the giant Chinese sovereign-wealth fund invest in U.S. manufacturing and other sectors, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The fund is targeting as much as $5 billion and is a co-investment partnership between Goldman and CIC, which plan to announce their venture jointly this week during U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, these people said. How much capital Goldman and CIC will each contribute to the fund is still being worked out, one of the people said.”

TRUMP TODAY — The president will attend a banquet hosted by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is accompanying Trump on the trip and will participate in a bilateral summit meeting.

****** A message from Morgan Stanley: Five emerging disruptive trends may drive long-term investment opportunities. Read more from Morgan Stanley. ******

MORE ON THE RAND PAUL ATTACK — “Sen. Rand Paul’s injuries far more severe than initially thought,” by Brandon Gee and Ed O’Keefe in WaPo: “Sen. Rand Paul is recovering from five broken ribs and bruises to his lungs, and it is unclear when he will return to Washington, aides said Sunday, signaling that injuries he sustained Friday are far more severe than initially thought. … Paul made his first public comments since the incident on Sunday, tweeting that his wife ‘Kelley and I appreciate the overwhelming support after Friday’s unfortunate event. Thank you for your thoughts and prayers.’ Doug Stafford, Paul’s chief of staff, said in a statement Sunday that the senator has five rib fractures, including three displaced fractures, meaning the bones are partly or completely cracked.

“‘This type of injury is caused by high velocity severe force. It is not clear exactly how soon he will return to work, as the pain is considerable as is the difficulty in getting around, including flying,’ Stafford said. Paul has lung contusions, or bruises, caused by the broken ribs, Stafford said. He could not say whether one lung was bruised or both, but said Paul’s recovery could last several months. Such fractures can cause other significant medical problems, including internal bleeding, damage to other organs or pneumonia.”

THIS IS IMPORTANT — SEUNG MIN KIM: “A prolonged absence by Paul could also complicate matters for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and the broader Senate GOP’s legislative agenda. Republicans control just 52 votes in the chamber, and absences can thwart the leadership from obtaining the simple majority needed to confirm nominees and pass some legislation. The Senate GOP is aiming to take up their own tax overhaul later this month, which they are trying to pass using a fast-track legislative procedure that undercuts a filibuster from Democrats. A bill could be released later this week.

“Paul has already indicated that, like during the health care fight, he is preparing to use his leverage to push the Senate’s tax bill in a more conservative direction — pushing for more ambitious rate cuts and even repealing Obamacare’s individual mandate to purchase health insurance. He was the sole Senate Republican to vote against the GOP budget that set up the fast-track procedure for tax reform, called reconciliation.”

— “Menendez could remain in Senate even if he’s convicted,” by John Bresnahan: “As the bribery case against Sen. Bob Menendez concludes, Senate Democrats could face a stark question — how long will they stick by the New Jersey Democrat if he’s convicted? Menendez’s lawyers have a final chance Monday in their closing arguments to persuade the jury hearing his case in Newark that the veteran lawmaker is not guilty. With Menendez’s fate likely to be decided within days, Democrats are already quietly strategizing on how to respond if he’s found guilty. They will be in no rush to expel or force Menendez out of office, even if a Democrat wins the New Jersey gubernatorial race, according to several Democratic senators and aides.”

RUSSIA WATCH — “Trump Jr. Hinted at Review of Anti-Russia Law, Moscow Lawyer Says,” by Bloomberg’s Irina Reznik and Henry Meyer: “A Russian lawyer who met with President Donald Trump’s oldest son last year says he indicated that a law targeting Russia could be re-examined if his father won the election, and asked her for written evidence that illegal proceeds went to Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

“The lawyer, Natalia Veselnitskaya, said in a two-and-a-half-hour interview in Moscow that she would tell those and other things to the Senate Judiciary Committee on condition that her answers be made public, something it hasn’t agreed to. She has received scores of questions from the committee, which is investigating possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Veselnitskaya said she’s also ready — if asked — to testify to Special Counsel Robert Mueller.”

WAPO: “At least nine people in Trump’s orbit had contact with Russians during campaign and transition,” by Rosalind S. Helderman, Tom Hamburger and Carol D. Leonnig: “A key question in the investigation — and one that hangs over Trump’s presidency — is whether these instances add up to a concerted Russian government effort to probe and infiltrate the Trump campaign, or whether they were isolated coincidences and, therefore, inconsequential. Ultimately, Mueller must decide whether anyone in Trump’s orbit coordinated with the Russians, and, if so, if such actions were illegal or just unseemly. Collusion itself is not a crime.”

— “Feds: Manafort claims current net worth of $28 million,” by Josh Gerstein: “Lawyers from special counsel Robert Mueller’s office disclosed the figure as negotiations continue over a package of assets Manafort would pledge in order to be released from home confinement, which he’s been under since he and longtime aide Rick Gates were arraigned Monday on a federal indictment. In a court filing Saturday, lawyers for Manafort offered to pledge three properties as part of the bail arrangement: Manafort’s Trump Tower apartment in Manhattan, a condo several miles south in Chinatown and Manafort’s primary home in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.”

TRUMP’S CABINET — NYT A1, “Commerce Secretary’s Offshore Ties to Putin ‘Cronies,’” by Mike McIntire, Sasha Chavkin and Martha M. Hamilton: “After becoming commerce secretary, Wilbur L. Ross Jr. retained investments in a shipping firm he once controlled that has significant business ties to a Russian oligarch subject to American sanctions and President Vladimir V. Putin’s son-in-law, according to newly disclosed documents. The shipper, Navigator Holdings, earns millions of dollars a year transporting gas for one of its top clients, a giant Russian energy company called Sibur, whose owners include the oligarch and Mr. Putin’s family member.”

DAVID IGNATIUS in WaPo, “The Saudi crown prince just made a very risky power play”: Mohammed bin Salman “is emboldened by strong support from President Trump and his inner circle, who see him as a kindred disrupter of the status quo — at once a wealthy tycoon and a populist insurgent. It was probably no accident that last month, Jared Kushner, Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, made a personal visit to Riyadh. The two princes are said to have stayed up until nearly 4 a.m. several nights, swapping stories and planning strategy.”

IN VIRGINIA — “Gillespie shuns Trump in biggest race of 2017,” by Alex Isenstadt: “As the Virginia and New Jersey governors races draw to a close, one person is conspicuously absent from the trail: President Donald Trump. The president hasn’t appeared in either campaign, an indication of his increasingly narrow political appeal and his growing inability to draw support in swing and liberal states. Trump’s absence in the competitive Virginia contest is especially striking: He is the first president since Richard Nixon, who at the time was in the throes of the Watergate scandal, not to campaign in its governor’s race. …

“The administration made it clear to Gillespie it wanted to be helpful however possible and was open to sending the president, three Trump aides to Trump said. Vice President Mike Pence appeared at a rally and fundraiser for Gillespie, but administration officials said the candidate never made a hard ask for Trump. Gillespie’s team reviewed polling in the final weeks of the race showing that Trump was a drag — his approval ratings had been stuck in the low 40s in the commonwealth for some time. While the president is well-liked across much of the conservative southern part of the state, he is extremely unpopular in the more liberal northern suburbs.”

NYT’S JMART: “‘He’s closed an enthusiasm gap by rallying around the Trump agenda,’ said Stephen K. Bannon, the president’s former strategist. ‘And I think the big lesson for Tuesday is that, in Gillespie’s case, Trumpism without Trump can show the way forward. If that’s the case, Democrats better be very, very worried.’”

TOM COTTON PROFILE — JEFFREY TOOBIN in the New Yorker, “Is Tom Cotton the Future of Trumpism? The junior senator from Arkansas is a hybrid of insurgent and old guard”: “Stephen Bannon, Trump’s former top strategist and the chairman of the right-wing Web site Breitbart News, told me, ‘Next to Trump, he’s the elected official who gets it the most—the economic nationalism. Cotton was the one most supportive of us, up front and behind the scenes, from the beginning. He understands that the Washington élite—this permanent political class of both parties, between the K Street consultants and politicians—needs to be shattered.’ At the same time, Cotton has maintained strong ties with the establishment wing of the G.O.P. … Roby Brock, who hosts the leading public-affairs television program in Arkansas, told me[:] … ‘The only thing everyone agrees on is that he wants to be President someday.’ …

“In the early days of the Trump Administration, Cotton exercised influence from behind the scenes. Bannon told me, ‘He spent a lot of time in my little war room, and he gave us a lot of good advice. He was the one who told us about John Kelly,’ the former Marine Corps general who is now Trump’s chief of staff. (The Senator and Kelly had met at a security conference when Cotton was in the House.) In recent months, however, Cotton’s influence has become more apparent, as Trump has embraced some of his most high-profile positions.”

SUSAN GLASSER’S latest “Global Politico” podcast: “Sexism on America’s Front Lines: Six top national security pros sound off in this week’s Global Politico about an adversary closer to home: piggish men”: Laura Rosenberger remembers telling a senior State Department official that she was going on a beach vacation. He responded by saying how much he’d enjoy thinking about her wearing a bikini. With another senior official, it was always a ‘head squirm,’ she remembered, ‘so he couldn’t succeed in kissing me on the lips.’

“For Mieke Eoyang, it was a committee chairman on Capitol Hill, cornering her at a reception to brag about his ‘sexual endurance.’ Or a male colleague looking at porn on his office computer, right where she could see it. Loren DeJonge Schulman thinks about the Special Forces men who would walk around her Defense Department office in their underwear, and talk about making a calendar of sexy women. ‘I thought that was just a cost of doing business in the Pentagon,’ she recalled, and complaints were not welcomed. ‘The few times we ever did, we were effectively laughed out of the room, like, ‘This is just what Special Forces guys are like. Come on. Get over it. You’re lucky that they haven’t done worse than that.’

“All three are accomplished national security hands in Washington, and until now none has spoken publicly about these experiences – and the broader culture of everyday sexual harassment and sexism that is still rampant in the national security world. They chose to do so now amid a rising national clamor over sexual harassment, for a special episode of The Global Politico podcast dedicated to the specific challenges faced by the very outnumbered women who help shape America’s place in the world but still routinely confront offenses that would stir outrage elsewhere.” Full transcript Listen to the full podcast

— “Fla. congressman blasts ‘predator’ state Sen. Latvala amid counteroffensive against sex-harassment accusers,” by POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo and Matt Dixon: “After six women accused Florida Senate budget chairman Jack Latvala of sexual harassment, his allies launched a counteroffensive over the weekend targeting the accusers as well as a congressman who had faulted his fellow Republican for being ‘a hound.’ ‘Predators think they can obtain the outcomes they desire through intimidation. Jack always has,’ said U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, a rival of Latvala who denies any wrongdoing or involvement in the pushback effort. Latvala is facing pressure publicly from the Florida House and privately from within the Senate to be removed — at least temporarily — as chairman of the Senate’s budget committee pending the outcome of an independent investigation … Soon after Gaetz spoke out against Latvala, an opposition research file detailing his drunken driving record and land deals were posted on the website HelloFLA.”

****** A message from Morgan Stanley: It’s hard to think of an industry that won’t be touched in some way by technological disruption over the next decade. Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Growth Team shares the big ideas and emerging trends that may have far-reaching implications for economies, industries, social behavior—and investors. Read more. ******

VALLEY TALK — NYT A1, “Kremlin Cash Behind Billionaire’s Twitter and Facebook Investments,” by NYT’s Jesse Drucker: “In the fall of 2010, the Russian billionaire investor Yuri Milner took the stage for a Q. and A. at a technology conference in San Francisco. Mr. Milner, whose holdings have included major stakes in Facebook and Twitter, is known for expounding on everything from the future of social media to the frontiers of space travel. But when someone asked a question that had swirled around his Silicon Valley ascent — Who were his investors? — he did not answer, turning repeatedly to the moderator with a look of incomprehension. Now, leaked documents examined by The New York Times offer a partial answer: Behind Mr. Milner’s investments in Facebook and Twitter were hundreds of millions of dollars from the Kremlin.

“Obscured by a maze of offshore shell companies, the Twitter investment was backed by VTB, a Russian state-controlled bank often used for politically strategic deals. And a big investor in Mr. Milner’s Facebook deal received financing from Gazprom Investholding, another government-controlled financial institution, according to the documents. They include a cache of records from the Bermuda law firm Appleby that were obtained by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and reviewed by The Times in collaboration with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists.”

–ALSO NOTEWORTHY from the story: “[I]n July 2015, he was one of several high-profile investors in Cadre, a New York-based real estate technology company founded by Mr. Kushner and his brother, Joshua. (Other investors and partners include Goldman Sachs, George Soros and Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.) Mr. Milner said he invested $850,000 in Cadre through a trust. … He said he was introduced to the company through an early investor whose name he did not remember. He said he met Jared Kushner only once, at a conference in Aspen, Colo.”

FOR YOUR RADAR — “‘Fat Leonard’ probe expands to ensnare more than 60 admirals,” by WaPo’s Craig Whitlock: “The ‘Fat Leonard’ corruption investigation has expanded to include more than 60 admirals and hundreds of other U.S. Navy officers under scrutiny for their contacts with a defense contractor in Asia who systematically bribed sailors with sex, liquor and other temptations, according to the Navy.

“Most of the admirals are suspected of attending extravagant feasts at Asia’s best restaurants paid for by Leonard Glenn Francis, a Singapore-based maritime tycoon who made an illicit fortune supplying Navy vessels in ports from Vladivostok, Russia to Brisbane, Australia. Francis also was renowned for hosting alcohol-soaked, after-dinner parties, which often featured imported prostitutes and sometimes lasted for days, according to federal court records.”

— “As Wildfires Raged, Insurers Sent in Private Firefighters to Protect Homes of the Wealthy,” by WSJ’s Leslie Scism: “During the worst of last month’s wildfires in Northern California, Dick Fredericks got a phone call that passed on ‘some magical words’: His house was safe. The message from a private firefighting service hired by his home insurer, Chubb Ltd., was accompanied by an email with some two dozen photos, including one of the service’s firefighters pumping water from Mr. Fredericks’s swimming pool to extinguish a brush fire on his Sonoma Valley property. … Some insurers say they typically get new customers when homeowners see the special treatment received by neighbors during big fires.”

MEDIAWATCH — GRETCHEN MORGENSON has been hired by the Wall Street Journal to join the investigative team as a senior special writer, starting late this month. She has spent the past 19 years at the New York Times.

SPOTTED: Bob Mueller, wearing a baseball hat and fleece, walking down 34th Street in Georgetown on a rainy Sunday afternoon … VP Mike Pence going into morning service on Sunday at McLean Presbyterian Church … Leon Wieseltier yesterday at the National Gallery of Art sitting in the front row at a book discussion of Jed Perl’s new biography of Alexander Calder … Republican political operative Colin Reed yesterday running the NYC Marathon — pic

MTP’s 70TH “Meet the Press” marked its 70th anniversary with a special group photo and cake Sunday morning – PICS — show photog Bill Plowman’s pic of Chuck taking a selfie with staffers: John Reiss and Chuck shot cake

WEEKEND WEDDING — Linda Shim, chief of staff to Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.), on Sunday married Matt Morgan, a House Judiciary Committee counsel, at a ceremony at La Quinta Resort in La Quinta, CA. SPOTTED: Chu, Krystal Ka’ai, Ben Suarato, Ellen Hamilton, Moh Sharma, Alex Nguyen, Meghan McConnell, Sarah Sonies and Ben Staub.

BIRTHDAYS OF THE DAY: Arun Chaudhary, creative director/partner at Revolution Messaging — Arun’s wife Laura Moser is running for Congress in Texas’ 7th congressional district. How he got his start in politics: “I started 10 years ago when I went from privately nursing political video ideas as a faculty member at NYU to working on the Obama 2008 presidential campaign via an invitation from CNN long format producer Kate Albright-Hanna. She said ‘move to Chicago, you’ll be good at this.’” Read his Playbook Plus Q&A: Jesmer, partner at FP1 Strategies, and former NRSC executive director. He’s celebrating by going to dinner with wife Kendall and kids Jack, Reaves and Carson. Q&A:

BIRTHDAYS: Dan Senor … Sid Blumenthal is 69 … former Education Secretary Arne Duncan is 53 … Andrew Snow … Catherine Crier … Ruth Messinger, former president of American Jewish World Service … Politico’s Louis Nelson and Ana Estes … Katie Niederee, press secretary for Senate Finance … Eric Mondero, gov’t relations at American Red Cross … Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) is 75 … Rep. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.) is 6-0 … Marlon Bateman, media relations at Hoover Institution … Mychal Denzel Smith … Ashley Lewis, the Democratic press secretary on the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs (h/t Laurence Wildgoose) … Alan Dechert … Andrew Saul, former vice chair of the MTA, is 71 (h/t Jewish Insider) …

… Whitney Mitchell Brennan, comms director for Sen. Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) … Matt Kirk, SVP at The Hartford … Bush 43 State alum JoJo Sears … Rick Nussio … Matt Wyatt … Sheila Walter … Scott Anderson … LaCreda Drummond-Mondon … Ramesh de Silva … Ian Braun … NPR TV critic Eric Deggans … Diana Banister … Christopher Joshua Arndt … Ben Wrobel of Village Capital and a CAP alum … Julia Moseley … Gray Brooks … NBC News’ Gresham Striegel … Michael Beland … Trish Turner of ABC News … Angelica LaVito … Chris Fitzgerald … Burson Taylor Snyder, deputy chief of staff for Sen. Roy Blunt … Andrew Weinberg is 53 … Suzanne Granville … Sara Bowlsby … Tommy Norman (h/ts Teresa Vilmain)

****** A message from Morgan Stanley: Interested in the long-term investment opportunities that might arise from disruption? Morgan Stanley Investment Management Disruptive Change Researcher Stan Delaney shares five emerging trends that investors should watch over the next decade. “Disruptive change is so pervasive that our team looks at all of our investments through a disruptive lens,” says DeLaney “Our disruptive analysis effort is really about supporting the Growth Team’s strategy of long-term investing, finding companies with a sustainable competitive advantage, and making sure that we aren’t holding companies that could be left behind.” These trends—spanning autonomous driving, machine learning, augmented reality and more—could have far-reaching implications for economies, industries and social behavior. Read more. ******

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